Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model

Jacinto Fabiosa, John Beghin (), Fengxia Dong, Amani Elobeid, Simla Tokgoz and Tun-hsiang Yu

Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications from Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University

Abstract: We quantify the emergence of biofuel markets and its impact on U.S. and world agriculture for the coming decade using the multi-market, multi-commodity international FAPRI (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute) model. The model incorporates the trade-offs between biofuel, feed, and food production and consumption and international feedback effects of the emergence through world commodity prices and trade. We examine land allocation by type of crop, and pasture use for countries growing feedstock for ethanol (corn, sorghum, wheat, sugarcane, and other grains) and major crops competing with feedstock for land resources such as oilseeds. We shock the model with exogenous changes in ethanol demand, first in the United States, then in Brazil, China, the European Union-25, and India, and compute shock multipliers for land allocation decisions for crops and countries of interest. The multipliers show at the margin how sensitive land allocation is to the growing demand for ethanol. Land moves away from major crops and pasture competing for resources with feedstock crops. Because of the high U.S. tariff on ethanol, higher U.S. demand for ethanol translates into a U.S. ethanol production expansion. The latter has global effects on land allocation as higher coarse grain prices transmit worldwide. Changes in U.S. coarse grain prices also affect U.S. wheat and oilseed prices, which are all transmitted to world markets. In contrast, expansion in Brazil ethanol use and production chiefly affects land used for sugarcane production in Brazil and to a lesser extent in other sugar-producing countries, but with small impacts on other land uses in most countries.

Keywords: acreage; area; biofuel; corn; crops; ethanol; FAPRI model; feedstock; land; sugar; sugarcane. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q17 Q18 Q42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-ene
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model (2010)
Working Paper: Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model (2010)
Working Paper: Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model (2009)
Working Paper: Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model (2009)
Working Paper: Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model (2009)
Working Paper: Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model (2008)
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