Linking excess mortality to Google mobility data during the COVID-19 pandemic in England and Wales

Ugofilippo Basellini, Diego Alburez-Gutierrez, Emanuele Del Fava, Daniela Perrotta, Marco Bonetti, Carlo Giovanni Camarda and Emilio Zagheni

Working Papers from French Institute for Demographic Studies

Abstract: Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented worldwide to curb the spread of COVID-19. However, the effectiveness of such governmental measures in reducing the mortality burden remains a key question of scientific interest and public debate. In this study, we leverage digital mobility data to assess the effects of reduced human mobility on excess mortality, focusing on regional data in England and Wales between February and August 2020. We estimate a robust association between mobility reductions and lower excess mortality, after adjusting for time trends and regional differences in a mixed-effects regression framework and considering a five-week lag between the two measures. We predict that, in the absence of mobility reductions, the number of excess deaths could have more than doubled in England and Wales during this period, especially in the London area. The study is one of the first attempts to quantify the effects of mobility reductions on excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords: digital data; mobility data; Google; COVID-19; coronavirus; SARS-CoV-2; excess mortality; regional differences; England and Wales; ANGLETERRE / ENGLAND; MORTALITE / MORTALITY; MOBILITE GEOGRAPHIQUE / GEOGRAPHIC MOBILITY; EPIDEMIE / EPIDEMICS; DISPARITE REGIONALE / REGIONAL DISPARITY; ANALYSE DES DONNEES / DATA ANALYSIS; DECES / DEATH; PAYS DE GALLES / WALES (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 1-25
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eur and nep-hea
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:idg:wpaper:axehlaypkgkzhr-blqv4

DOI: 10.31235/osf.io/75d6m

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