Predictive power of fantasy sports data for soccer forecasting

Erik Å trumbelj and Marko Robnik-Å ikonja

International Journal of Data Mining, Modelling and Management, 2015, vol. 7, issue 2, 154-163

Abstract: We analyse data from 5,000 competitors who participated in an online soccer managerial game which revolved around the English Premier League (EPL). We show that competitors incorporate into their decisions relevant information about the outcome of a soccer match. Furthermore, forecasts based on managerial game data are significantly better than random forecasts, forecasts based on relative frequency, and forecasts based on teams' attendance, but worse than bookmaker odds. Our work provides an evidence that crowds poses significant amount of information for the match outcome prediction.

Keywords: data analytics; fantasy sport games; result forecasting; fantasy football; football results; soccer results; English Premier League; EPL; Fantasy Premier League; match outcome prediction; football matches; soccer matches; random forecasts; relative frequency; team attendances; bookmaker odds. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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