Evaluating the impact of nutrient abatement measures on the ecological status of coastal waters: a Bayesian network for decision analysis

Annukka Lehikoinen, Inari Helle, Eveliina Klemola, Samu Mäntyniemi, Sakari Kuikka and Heikki Pitkänen

International Journal of Multicriteria Decision Making, 2014, vol. 4, issue 2, 114-134

Abstract: Environmental managers must make decisions about complex problems that have a high degree of uncertainty such as, which nutrient abatement measure optimally improves the condition of an ecosystem. Although data and models that provide information on this subject exist, their knowledge may be fragmentary and difficult to interpret. We present a user-friendly modelling tool that integrates results of different models and data-analyses. It can be used by decision-makers for assessing the probabilities of different nutrient abatement scenarios for achieving specific targets set by the Water Framework Directive for Finnish coastal waters in the Gulf of Finland. The results suggest that significant reductions in nutrient loads are required to achieve good ecological status in Finnish coastal waters, and in the event of increased precipitation these targets may be less likely to be attained. Moreover, different approaches to the status classification lead to very different conclusions.

Keywords: Bayesian networks; Water Framework Directive; ecological status classification; ESC; multicriteria decision analysis; MCDA; nutrient abatement; uncertainty; eutrophication; Baltic Sea; Gulf of Finland; GoF; coastal waters; environmental management; ecosystems; modelling. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ids:ijmcdm:v:4:y:2014:i:2:p:114-134

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