Forecasting long-term demand of largest Finnish sea ports

Lauri Lättilä and Olli-Pekka Hilmola

International Journal of Applied Management Science, 2012, vol. 4, issue 1, 52-79

Abstract: Investments in large scale logistical infrastructure are significant and they require a long time and as such good forecasts play an important part. In this research, we combine advanced forecasting methods with system dynamics to study the development of Finnish sea ports. We use regression and ARIMA models in conjunction with a system dynamic Monte Carlo simulation model to estimate the development of Finnish sea ports. Based on long-term data, industrial production was found to be the driving factor behind sea port demand development in Finland. GDP is generally regarded as the explanatory variable, but at least in Finland, industrial production drives the growth. Russian oil exports also explain transit traffic through Finland to Russia, and four scenarios were generated to estimate the development of Finnish sea ports.

Keywords: advanced forecasting models; system dynamics; sea port demand; stochastic simulation; Finland; long-term demand; sea ports; Monte Carlo simulation; modelling; port development. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ids:injams:v:4:y:2012:i:1:p:52-79

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