Bounds On Treatment Effects On Transitions

Johan Vikström (), Geert Ridder () and Martin Weidner
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Geert Ridder: Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Southern California

No CWP17/16, CeMMAP working papers from Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies

Abstract: This paper considers identif cation of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identi fied. Because treated and control units drop out at diff erent rates, randomization only ensures the comparability of treatment and controls at the time of randomization, so that long run average treatment effects are not point identifi ed. Instead we derive informative bounds on these average treatment effects. Our bounds do not impose (semi)parametric restrictions, as e.g. proportional hazards. We also explore various assumptions such as monotone treatment response, common shocks and positively correlated outcomes hat tighten the bounds.

Keywords: Partial identification; duration model; randomized experiment; treatment effect (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 C41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-04-22
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp and nep-net
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Related works:
Journal Article: Bounds on treatment effects on transitions (2018)
Working Paper: Bounds On Treatment Effects On Transitions (2017)
Working Paper: Bounds on treatment effects on transitions (2015)
Working Paper: Bounds on treatment effects on transitions (2011)
Working Paper: Bounds On Treatment Effects On Transitions (2011)
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