A Regional Model of Climate Change and Human Migration

Asmeret Bier Naugle, George A. Backus, Vincent C. Tidwell, Elizabeth Kistin-Keller and Daniel L. Villa
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Asmeret Bier Naugle: Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, USA
George A. Backus: Sandia National Laboratories (Retired), Broomfield, USA
Vincent C. Tidwell: Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, USA
Elizabeth Kistin-Keller: Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, USA
Daniel L. Villa: Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, USA

International Journal of System Dynamics Applications (IJSDA), 2019, vol. 8, issue 1, 1-22

Abstract: As climate change and human migration accelerate globally, decision-makers are seeking tools that can deepen their understanding of the complex nexus between climate change and human migration. These tools can help to identify populations under pressure to migrate, and to explore proactive policy options and adaptive measures. Given the complexity of factors influencing migration, this article presents a system dynamics-based model that couples migration decision making and behavior with the interacting dynamics of economy, labor, population, violence, governance, water, food, and disease. The regional model is applied here to the test case of migration within and beyond Mali. The study explores potential systems impacts of a range of proactive policy solutions and shows that improving the effectiveness of governance and increasing foreign aid to urban areas have the highest potential of those investigated to reduce the necessity to migrate in the face of climate change.

Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:igg:jsda00:v:8:y:2019:i:1:p:1-22

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