What Might the Next Emerging-Market Financial Crisis Look Like?

Morris Goldstein

No WP05-7, Working Paper Series from Peterson Institute for International Economics

Abstract: This paper addresses the following question: If a financial crisis affecting a group of emerging economies were to take place sometime over the next three years, where would the crisis likely originate, how could it be transmitted to other economies, and which economies would be most affected by particular transmission or contagion mechanisms? A set of indicators is presented to gauge the vulnerability of individual emerging economies to various shocks, including a slowdown in import demand in both China and the United States, a fall in primary commodity prices, increased costs and lower availability of external financing, alternative patterns of exchange rate changes, and pressures operating on monetary and fiscal policies in emerging economies.

Keywords: emerging markets; financial crisis; China slowdown; US current account (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F31 F34 F37 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005-07
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (20)

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