Growth-indexed Bonds and Debt Distribution: Theoretical Benefits and Practical Limits

Julien Acalin

No WP18-7, Working Paper Series from Peterson Institute for International Economics

Abstract: Sovereign state-contingent bonds, in particular growth-indexed bonds (GIBs), have rarely been issued in practice despite their theoretical benefits. This paper provides support for this apparent sovereign noncontingency puzzle by deriving the impact of GIBs on the upper tail of the distribution of the public debt-to-GDP ratio. Although this impact varies importantly across countries and indexation formulas, empirical estimates show there is almost no reduction in the upper tail of the distribution under the realistic assumption that GIBs only represent 20 percent of the stock of debt. Moreover, a sustained premium of 100 basis points would actually increase the upper tail of the distribution for most countries.

Keywords: Growth-indexed bonds; State-contingent bonds; Debt sustainability; Monte Carlo simulations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E62 F34 F45 H63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-pbe
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp18-7

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