COVID-19 in India: Policy Suggestions using Epidemiological Modeling

Ghatak Anirban () and Singh Ranraj
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Ghatak Anirban: Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode
Singh Ranraj: Indian Institute of Technology Dhanbad

No 449, Working papers from Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode

Abstract: In this policy paper, we implement a compartment based epidemiological model that incorporates control measures such as Lockdown and Social Distancing for the top fifteen most affected states in India using data upto 3rd May, 2020. This is the only study till date in India that estimates the time varying effects of these control measures on the transmission rate of Covid-19 directly from the data and applies that to an extended epidemiological model. We predict the disease progression using the eSIR model for nine scenarios with different possible dates of lockdown relaxation followed by different levels of social distancing guidelines adopted post lockdown. Using the results of the simulations, we propose possible exit strategies for each state depending on factors such as the fraction of the population that will be infected at the peak and the hospital bed capacity.

Pages: 3 pages
Date: 2021-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea
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