A Geospatial Dynamic Microsimulation Model for Household Population Projections

Susan M. Rogers (), James Rineer, Matthew D. Scruggs (), William D. Wheaton (), Phillip C. Cooley (), Douglas J. Roberts () and Diane K. Wagener ()
Additional contact information
Susan M. Rogers: Research Triangle Institute
James Rineer: Research Triangle Institute
Matthew D. Scruggs: Research Triangle Institute
William D. Wheaton: Research Triangle Institute
Phillip C. Cooley: Research Triangle Institute
Douglas J. Roberts: Research Triangle Institute
Diane K. Wagener: Research Triangle Institute

International Journal of Microsimulation, 2014, vol. 7, issue 2, 119-146

Abstract: Forecasting Populations (FPOP) is a microsimulation model (MSM) that is the demographic core of an extensible modeling framework. The framework, with FPOP at its core, enables the geospatial projection of a population under purely demographic processes or under the additional influence of exogenous factors such as disease, policy changes and prevention programs, or environmental stressors. Empirically-derived transition probabilities of life events such as birth, death, marriage, divorce and migration, captured in lookup table format, drive the simulation. These transition probabilities can be modified dynamically by external user-defined functions or other external MSMs. The use of MSM structures and methodologies enables FPOP to portray the impact of heterogeneity in the geospatial dimension (e.g., distribution of environmental factors or distribution of intervention programs), as well as the social dimension (e.g., household or social network correlates), on the projections. POP is designed and structured to: enable linking with external MSMs of any kind; support inclusion or configuration of more detailed transition probabilities; be scalable to millions of agents; use either an existing baseline synthetic population or a custom synthetic population of the users design; and, run under computing environments that dont require a high degree of specialized software or hardware. In this paper we describe the design and structure of FPOP and then apply FPOP first under purely demographic processes and, secondly, in conjunction with an external disease model of obesity.The objective of FPOP is to provide a demographically realistic projection of the size, structure, and movement of populations and households decades into the future.

Keywords: Mathematical Models; Numerical Methods; Computational Techniques; Order Dynamics; Computer Programs; Software; Map-Reduce programming model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C63 C69 C88 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.microsimulation.org/IJM/V7_2/5_IJM_7_2_2014_Rogers_et_al.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ijm:journl:v:7:y:2014:i:2:p:119-146

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of Microsimulation is currently edited by Matteo Richiardi

More articles in International Journal of Microsimulation from International Microsimulation Association
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Jinjing Li ().