Russian Federation: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report

International Monetary Fund

No 2019/260, IMF Staff Country Reports from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Russian Federation discusses that growth is projected at 1.2 percent in 2019, reflecting a weak first quarter estimate, lower oil prices and the impact of the higher value-added tax rate on private consumption. At the same time, gross domestic product growth should be supported by an increase in public sector spending in the context of the national projects announced in 2018. Inflation has begun to fall and is expected to return to the 4 percent target by early 2020. The medium-term growth outlook remains modest. Public infrastructure spending under the national projects together with increase labor supply due to pension reform could have a positive effect on the growth rate of potential output. However, absent deeper structural reforms, long-run growth is projected to settle around 1.8 percent. It is recommended that it is imperative to enhance competition by facilitating entry/exit and reforming public procurement.

Keywords: ISCR; CR; inflation expectation; IMF staff estimate; growth outlook; market; holding; inflation outturn; lending growth; Brent oil price; Correspondent banking; Oil prices; Inflation; Fiscal rules; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 73
Date: 2019-08-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis and nep-mac
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