Turkey: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Turkey

International Monetary Fund

No 2019/395, IMF Staff Country Reports from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Turkey discusses that economic growth has since resumed, buoyed by expansionary fiscal policy, rapid credit provision by state-owned banks, and more favorable external financing conditions. The lira also recovered as market pressures abated. Import compression and a strong tourism season have contributed to a remarkable current account adjustment. Inflation has fallen sharply, and the central bank cut policy rates by 1000 basis points since July 2019. Inflation peaked at around 25 percent—five times the target—in October 2018 due, in large part, to high exchange rate passthrough and rising inflation expectations. However, strong base effects, relative lira stability, and a negative output gap have since contributed to a steep inflation decline, although inflation expectations remain well above target. State-owned banks are supporting rapid credit growth. While private banks have cut back on their lending, state-owned banks have engaged in a major credit expansion which picked up pace in early-2019.

Keywords: ISCR; CR; inflation expectation; authority; IMF staff calculation; IFC portfolio implementation; intervention policy; debt stock; financing needs; market valuation; Inflation; State-owned banks; Financial statements; Credit; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 84
Date: 2019-12-26
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara, nep-cwa and nep-mac
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