Armenia: Technical Assistance Report-Quantifying Fiscal Risks from Climate Change

International Monetary Fund

No 2022/329, IMF Staff Country Reports from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: Armenia is facing considerable fiscal risks from climate change due to increasing and highly variable temperatures. This report provides guidance on how to quantify those risks over the long term, using an empirical approach to identify the potential impact of a range of temperature scenarios on GDP and the public finances. It finds that an extreme unmitigated temperature scenario that incorporates higher year to year variability could reduce GDP by 18 percent relative to baseline, and lead to unsustainable public debt trajectory by 2070. It also finds particular exposures to climate change on the state’s balance sheet through its SOE, PPP and on lending portfolio in the energy, water and transport sectors.

Keywords: IMF resident Representative; IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department; climate exposure; expenditure Rigidity; mitigation target; climate adaptation needs; risk premia; temperature variance; feasibility study; PPP climate change risk exposure; Climate change; Fiscal risks; Natural disasters; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 43
Date: 2022-10-26
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