Czech Republic: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report

International Monetary Fund

No 2023/031, IMF Staff Country Reports from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This 2022 Article IV Consultation highlights that Russia’s war in Ukraine has stifled the Czech Republic’s nascent recovery from the pandemic. Uncertainty is high due to the war with risks to economic activity tilted to the downside and risks to inflation tilted to the upside. The economy remains vulnerable to the availability of and further increases in energy and commodity prices. Czechia's nascent recovery from the pandemic has been hindered by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Gas shortages are unlikely this winter but further increases in energy prices are a key risk. Inflation, which is well above target, and the rise in the cost of living are causing significant social pressure. Amid a volatile economic environment and high risks to the outlook, policy needs to balance reducing inflation with supporting the most vulnerable. Once uncertainty dissipates, continuing the structural policy agenda will be critical. Labor market policies should continue to improve the integration of women, migrants, and refugees, and facilitate the green and digital economic transformation. The indexation of the retirement age to life expectancy would improve pension sustainability and increase labor supply. While energy security is an immediate priority, policies for the green transformation should continue.

Keywords: inflation expectation; high-inflation environment; headline inflation; potential GDP; reducing inflation; creating capital inflows; Inflation; Fiscal stance; External sector statistics; Consumption; Europe; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 89
Date: 2023-01-20
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