Libya: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Libya

International Monetary Fund

No 2023/201, IMF Staff Country Reports from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that Libya’s institutional framework has helped the country through a period of significant macroeconomic volatility and turmoil. There have been exceptional swings in oil production and revenues since 2011. The economy contracted sharply in 2020 due to an oil blockade and a decline in oil prices, resulting in ballooning external and fiscal deficits, and declining foreign exchange reserves. Libya’s economic fortunes will hinge on oil and gas production for the near future. Hydrocarbon production is projected to grow by around 15 percent in 2023 following an increase in oil production from 1 million barrels per day in 2022 to around 1.2 million barrels per day in 2023 and increase gradually thereafter. Looking ahead, assuming fiscal spending remains contained, the baseline projection is for fiscal and external surpluses to gradually decline over coming years. The key risks to the outlook are lower oil prices due to lower-than-expected global growth, and renewed conflict and/or social unrest that leads to disruptions in oil production.

Pages: 48
Date: 2023-06-08
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