Chile: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chile

International Monetary Fund

No 2024/041, IMF Staff Country Reports from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: The 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that macroeconomic imbalances built during the pandemic have been largely resolved, supported by tighter macroeconomic policies deployed during late 2021–22 in Chile. Growth is expected to pick up to close to 2 percent in 2024 and 2–2.5 percent in the medium term. Inflation is projected to converge to the 3-percent target in 2024. Key external risks are the uncertainties around the potentially higher-for-longer interest rates in advanced economies, a growth slowdown in major trading partners, and the intensification of regional conflicts in the world. Policies have supported macroeconomic stability. In the context of disinflation acceleration, the Central Bank of Chile lowered the monetary policy rate by 400 basis points since July 2023. The headline fiscal balance is estimated to decline to about -2.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2023 due to weaker tax revenues amid an economic slowdown, lower copper prices, and other transitory factors. The 2024 budget envisions a moderate deficit reduction within a medium-term fiscal plan to a broadly balanced fiscal position by 2026. The ongoing implementation of the countercyclical capital buffer will strengthen financial resilience in periods of stress.

Keywords: basket weight; CPI data; CPI calculation methodology; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; money market rate; Fiscal stance; Inflation; Income; Global; Caribbean (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 91
Date: 2024-02-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-inv
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