 Monetary Policy Rules and the U.S. Business Cycle: Evidence and ImplicationsNo 2004/164, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund Abstract: This paper estimates Taylor-type interest rates for the United States allowing for both time and state dependence. It provides evidence that the coefficients of the Taylor rule change significantly over time, and that the behavior of the Federal Reserve over the cycle can be explained using a two-state switching regime model. During expansions, the Federal Reserve follows a rule that can be characterized as inflation targeting with a high degree of interest rate smoothing. During recessions, the Federal Reserve targets output growth and conducts policy in a more active manner. The implications of conducting this type of policy are analyzed in a small scale new Keynesian model. Keywords: WP; demand shock; Switching Regime Models; Time-Varying Coefficients; Taylor Rule; inflation volatility; stabilization trade; core CPI inflation; Fed chairman; monetary policy rule; inflation equation; inflation dynamics; Inflation; Production growth; Inflation targeting; Real interest rates (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2004/164 Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from Access Statistics for this paper More papers in IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC. |
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