What Explains Persistent Inflation Differentials Across Transition Economies?

Mark Flanagan and Felix Hammermann

No 2007/189, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: Panel estimates based on 19 transition economies suggests that some central banks may aim at comparatively high inflation rates mainly to make up for, and to perhaps exploit, lagging internal and external liberalization in their economies. Out-of-sample forecasts, based on expected developments in the underlying structure of these economies, and assuming no changes in institutions, suggest that incentives may be diminishing, but not to the point where inflation levels below 5 percent could credibly be announced as targets. Greater economic liberalization would help reduce incentives for higher inflation, and enhancements to central bank independence could help shield these central banks from pressures.

Keywords: WP; Output-inflation trade-off; inflation differential; CIS-West inflation; inflation gap; inflation; transition economies; panel data; inflation choice; inflation impulse; inflation outcome; price liberalization; Terms of trade; Price controls; Inflation targeting; Fiscal sustainability; Central and Eastern Europe; Eastern Europe; Western Europe; Baltics; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32
Date: 2007-07-01
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=21183 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/189

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Akshay Modi ().