A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices

Michel Juillard, Charles Freedman, Dmitry Korshunov (), Douglas Laxton, Ondrej Kamenik, Ioan Carabenciov, Igor Ermolaev and Jared Laxton

No 2008/280, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This is the third of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies that incorporates oil prices and allows us to trace out the effects of shocks to oil prices. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.

Keywords: WP; exchange rate; real interest rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 74
Date: 2008-12-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (28)

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