Spillovers From the Rest of the World Into Sub-Saharan African Countries

International Monetary Fund

No 2009/155, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of a global slowdown on individual African countries using a series of dynamic panel regressions for countries in the region, relating real growth in domestic output to world growth in trade weighted by partner countries and several control variables: oil prices, non-oil prices, financial variables, and country fixed effects. Estimates are then applied to prepare country-specific simulations. The model, which is shown to estimate well out-of-sample spillover effects in the region, shows that countries in the region are significantly affected by lower external demand for their exports, declines in commodity prices and the terms of trade, and tighter financial conditions abroad. The last, proxied by the spread of three-month Libor to US treasury bills, is to our knowledge one of the first applications of such a measure of financial conditions for countries in the region.

Keywords: WP; price; world growth; Growth spillovers; financial linkages; commodity prices; panel estimate; Africa; oil price shock; income reduction; terms of trade effect; export price; terms of trade shock; commodity export price; Oil prices; Commodity price fluctuations; Terms of trade; Exports; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20
Date: 2009-07-01
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23113 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/155

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Akshay Modi ().