Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts: Some Cross-Country Evidence

Natalia Tamirisa, Prakash Loungani and Herman Stekler

No 2011/125, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: We document information rigidity in forecasts for real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We investigate: (i) if rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of recessions and crises; (ii) if rigidities differ across countries, particularly between advanced countries and emerging markets; and (iii) how quickly forecasters incorporate news about growth in other countries into their growth forecasts, with a focus on how advanced countries‘ growth forecasts incorporate news about emerging market growth and vice versa.

Keywords: WP; data set; Information rigidity; forecasts; recessions; crises; banking crisis; recession episode; recession year; possibility recession; banking crises episode; Banking crises; Rational expectations; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Vector autoregression; Middle East; Western Hemisphere; Europe; Africa; Asia and Pacific (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 41
Date: 2011-06-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Journal Article: Information rigidity in growth forecasts: Some cross-country evidence (2013)
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