New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time

Troy Matheson ()

No 2011/043, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: We develop monthly indicators for tracking growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. We test the historical performance of our indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle. In a recursive out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that the indicators generally produce good GDP growth forecasts relative to a range of time series models.

Keywords: WP; real GDP (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 22
Date: 2011-02-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (25)

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Journal Article: New indicators for tracking growth in real time (2014)
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