As You sow so Shall You Reap: Public Investment Surges, Growth, and Debt Sustainability in togo

Antonio David, Luis-Felipe Zanna, Raphael Espinoza, Michal Andrle and Marshall Mills

No 2012/127, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper presents an analysis of the public investment scaling-up strategy for Togo using a dynamic macroeconomic model that explicitly analyzes the links between public investment, economic growth, and debt sustainability. In the model, public capital is productive and complementary to private capital, generating positive medium and long-run effects to increases in public investment. The model application indicates that a very large increase in public investment would have positive macroeconomic effects in the long-run, but would require unrealistic increases in the tax burden to cover recurrent costs and ensure debt sustainability. More modest increases in public investment would require more feasible increases in the tax burden, particularly if the efficiency of tax collection is improved. The model simulations also emphasize the importance of improvements in the efficiency of public investment to reap welfare gains. However, even if the macroeconomic implications of public investment scaling-up can be favorable in the long-run under certain assumptions on rates of return and efficiency of investment, the transition period is challenging and exposes the country to increased risk of unsustainable debt dynamics. The model was also used to assess the growth projections underlying the standard Excel-based debt sustainability analysis for Togo.

Keywords: WP; real GDP; crowding out; exchange rate; Public Investment; Fiscal Policy; Developing Countries; investment scaling-up; management capacity; scaling-up strategy; increase scenario; investment surge; investment capacity; investment-growth nexus; Public investment spending; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Debt sustainability analysis; Fiscal consolidation; Sub-Saharan Africa; model simulation; model dynamics; model application; efficiency of investment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39
Date: 2012-05-01
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25921 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/127

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Akshay Modi ().