Measuring External Risks for Peru: Insights from a Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open and Partially Dollarized Economy

Fei Han

No 2014/161, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper quantifies the effects of external risks for Peru, with particular attention to two major external risks, China’s investment slowdown and the U.S. monetary policy tightening. In particular, a macroeconomic model for a small open and partially dollarized economy is developed and estimated for Peru to measure the risk spillovers, and simulate domestic macroeconomic responses in different scenarios with these two external risks. The simulation results suggest that Peru’s output is vulnerable to both risks, particularly the U.S. monetary policy tightening. Simulations also highlight the importance of higher exchange rate flexiblity and a lower degree of dollarization, which could help mitigate the negative spillover effects of these external risks.

Keywords: WP; interest rate; exchange rate; monetary policy; Macroeconomic Model; Partial Dollarization; External Risk; Spillovers; Macroeconomic Forecast; China scenario; investment slowdown; copper export; U.S. dollar; Peru's output gap; mineral imports; federal funds rate; terms-of-trade gap; macroeconomic response; World metal price inflation; Output gap; Exchange rates; Exchange rate flexibility; Inflation; Metal prices; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24
Date: 2014-09-02
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=41879 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/161

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Akshay Modi ().