Estimating Sri Lanka’s Potential Output

Ding Ding, John Nelmes, Roshan Perera () and Volodymyr Tulin

No 2014/040, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: In this paper we present various techniques to estimate Sri Lanka’s potential output and output gap, including statistical and model-based approaches. Compared to conventional statistical filters that rely exclusively on information in a single series, the model-based approaches allow potential output estimates to incorporate information contained in observable data series including inflation, actual output, unemployment and capacity utilization. The estimation results suggest that Sri Lanka’s potential output has risen slightly in the last few years.

Keywords: WP; excess demand; Potential Output; Output Gap; Multivariate Filter; Inflation Expectations; Capacity Utilization; Unemployment; output gap estimate; equilibrium unemployment unemployment rate; inflation equation; inflation-output trade-off; inflation objective; Inflation; Unemployment rate; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 16
Date: 2014-03-11
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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