End of the Supercycle and Growth of Commodity Producers: The Case of Chile

Luc Eyraud

No 2015/242, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper estimates the effect of copper prices on Chile’s growth at various time horizons. We find that a price decline is likely to have a durable (although not permanent) effect on GDP growth: while the impact is the strongest in the first 3 years after the shock, the transition towards the new lower steady-state GDP level generally takes 5–10 years. From a production function perspective, the GDP growth slowdown is mainly driven by lower capital accumulation.

Keywords: WP; price; commodity; price shock; volatility model; copper price series; GDP deceleration; price volatility model; Chile; Commodities; Copper; Growth; copper price outlook; copper price Supercycle; nominal copper price; negative commodity price shock; macroeconomic effect of commodity price shock; price series; copper price fluctuation; effect of commodity price shock; Metal prices; Commodity prices; Commodity price shocks; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27
Date: 2015-11-23
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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