Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy

Allan Dizioli, Benjamin Hunt and Wojciech Maliszewski

No 2016/212, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: China’s transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the ‘maturing’ of China’s economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; and iii) demand rebalancing from investment towards consumption. In the short term, financial stress may lead to a cyclical slowdown. This paper discusses and quantifies spillovers to the global economy from these different developments. The analysis is undertaken using the APDMOD and G20MOD, both modules of the IMF’s Flexible System of Global Models. For plausible values of these developments, the overall impact on the global economy is not large. However, the impact on China’s closest trading partners and commodity exporters can be notable.

Keywords: WP; maturing process; growth performance; growth convergence path; growth prospect; growth showdown; China’s slowdown and rebalancing; international business cycle; spillovers; model based analysis; commodity-net-export position; tradable goods sector; maturing economy; Public investment spending; Commodity prices; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Exports; Global; Asia and Pacific (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 33
Date: 2016-11-08
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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