Growth Breaks and Growth Spells in Sub-Saharan Africa

Francisco Arizala, Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia, Charalambos Tsangarides and Mustafa Yenice

No 2017/202, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper examines the growth performance of sub-Saharan African countries since 1960 through the lens of growth turning points (accelerations and decelerations) and periods of sustained growth (growth spells). Growth accelerations are generally associated with improved external conditions, increased investment and trade openness, declines in inflation, better fiscal balances, and improvements in the institutional environment. Transitioning from growth accelerations to growth spells often requires additional efforts beyond what is needed to trigger an acceleration. Growth spells are sustained by fiscal policy that prevents excessive public debt accumulation, monetary policy geared toward low inflation, outward-oriented trade policies, and structural policies that reduce market distortions, as well as supportive external environment and improvements in democratic institutions. Overall, determinants of growth spells in sub-Saharan Africa are different from those in the rest of the emerging and developing countries.

Keywords: WP; growth spell; break size; terms of trade; foreign direct investment; developing economy; hard landing; Growth; accelerations; duration analysis; Africa; sub-Saharan Africa sample; sub-Saharan Africa trade integration; fed funds rate; growth accelerations in sub-Saharan Africa; aid flows to sub-Saharan Africa increase; Real exchange rates; Exchange rate arrangements; Oil prices; Inflation; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; Asia and Pacific; Middle East; North Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 37
Date: 2017-09-08
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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