Launching Export Accelerations in Latin America and the World

Valerie Cerra and Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael

No 2017/043, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper investigates the determinants of sustained accelerations in goods and services exports. Strong predictors of export takeoffs include domestic and structural indicators such as lower macroeconomic uncertainty, improved quality of institutions, a depreciated exchange rate, and agricultural reforms. Lower tariffs, participation in global value chains and diversification also contribute to initiating export accelerations. The paper also finds heterogeneity, with somewhat different triggers for Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as for goods and services. Finally, despite the lack of a robust effect on output, export surges tend to be associated with lower post-acceleration unemployment and income inequality.

Keywords: WP; export acceleration; real GDP; export growth; banking sector; exchange rate; export accelerations; trade; growth; unemployment; inequality; probit; synthetic control method; Latin America and the Caribbean; globalization; export surge; export takeoff; acceleration date; export diversification help; basket composition; goods export takeoff; goods export deceleration; export deceleration; Exports; Service exports; Export performance; Income inequality; Income distribution; Caribbean; Sub-Saharan Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 68
Date: 2017-03-09
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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