The Composition of Optimally Wise Crowds

Clintin P. Davis-Stober (), David V. Budescu (), Stephen B. Broomell () and Jason Dana ()
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Clintin P. Davis-Stober: Department of Psychological Sciences, University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri, 65211
David V. Budescu: Department of Psychology, Fordham University, Bronx, New York, 10458
Stephen B. Broomell: Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, 15213
Jason Dana: School of Management, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, 06520

Decision Analysis, 2015, vol. 12, issue 3, 130-143

Abstract: We investigate optimal group member configurations for producing a maximally accurate group forecast. Our approach accounts for group members that may be biased in their forecasts and/or have errors that correlate with the criterion values being forecast. We show that for large forecasting groups, the diversity of individual forecasts linearly trades off with forecaster accuracy when determining optimal group composition.

Keywords: type coherence; wisdom of the crowds; forecasting; prediction; optimal weighting; aggregation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:12:y:2015:i:3:p:130-143

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