An Overview of Applications of Proper Scoring Rules

Arthur Carvalho ()
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Arthur Carvalho: Farmer School of Business, Miami University, Oxford, Ohio 45056

Decision Analysis, 2016, vol. 13, issue 4, 223-242

Abstract: We present a study on the evolution of publications about applications of proper scoring rules. Specifically, we consider articles reporting the use of proper scoring rules when either measuring the accuracy of forecasts or for inducing honest reporting of private information within a certain context. Our analysis of a data set containing 201 articles published between 1950 and 2015 suggests that there has been a tremendous increase in the number of published articles about proper scoring rules over the years. Moreover, the weather/climate, prediction markets, psychology, and energy domains are the four most popular application areas. After providing some insights on how proper scoring rules are applied in different domains, we analyze the publication outlets where the articles in our data set were published. In this regard, we find that an increasing number of articles are now being published in conference proceedings related to artificial intelligence, as opposed to traditional academic journals. We conclude this review by suggesting that the wisdom-of-crowds phenomenon might be a driving force behind the recent popularity of proper scoring rules.

Keywords: proper scoring rules; forecasting; forecast evaluation; incentive engineering (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:13:y:2016:i:4:p:223-242

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