Expert Judgment, Meta-analysis, and Participatory Risk Analysis

Simon French ()
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Simon French: Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, United Kingdom

Decision Analysis, 2012, vol. 9, issue 2, 119-127

Abstract: There are three contexts in which one might wish to combine expert judgments of uncertainty: the expert problem, the group decision problem, and the textbook problem. Much has been written on the first two, which have the focus of a single decision context, but little on the third. The textbook problem arises when one needs to draw together expert judgments into a decision analysis when their judgments were made originally in a context-free manner or perhaps for other decision contexts. In many ways the textbook problem parallels that of performing a meta-analysis of empirical studies. However, there are differences. In this paper, we discuss those difficulties and then focus on two closely related issues: How should expert judgment studies be published so as to facilitate subsequent meta-analyses, and how should such meta-analyses be performed?

Keywords: aggregation of expert judgment; meta-analysis; public participation; the textbook problem (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:9:y:2012:i:2:p:119-127

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