Blinding Us to the Obvious? The Effect of Statistical Training on the Evaluation of Evidence

Blakeley B. McShane () and David Gal ()
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Blakeley B. McShane: Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois 60208
David Gal: College of Business Administration, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60607

Management Science, 2016, vol. 62, issue 6, 1707-1718

Abstract: Statistical training helps individuals analyze and interpret data. However, the emphasis placed on null hypothesis significance testing in academic training and reporting may lead researchers to interpret evidence dichotomously rather than continuously. Consequently, researchers may either disregard evidence that fails to attain statistical significance or undervalue it relative to evidence that attains statistical significance. Surveys of researchers across a wide variety of fields (including medicine, epidemiology, cognitive science, psychology, business, and economics) show that a substantial majority does indeed do so. This phenomenon is manifest both in researchers’ interpretations of descriptions of evidence and in their likelihood judgments. Dichotomization of evidence is reduced though still present when researchers are asked to make decisions based on the evidence, particularly when the decision outcome is personally consequential. Recommendations are offered. This paper was accepted by Yuval Rottenstreich, judgment and decision making.

Keywords: sociology of science; evaluation of evidence; strength of evidence; null hypothesis; significance testing; p-values; description; inference; judgment; choice (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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