Generalizing the Taylor Principle

Troy Davig and Eric Leeper

No 2006-001, CAEPR Working Papers from Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington

Abstract: The paper generalizes the Taylor principle—the proposition that central banks can stabilize the macroeconomy by raising their interest rate instrument more than one-for-one in response to higher inflation—to an environment in which reaction coefficients in the monetary policy rule evolve according to a Markov process. We derive a long-run Taylor principle that delivers unique bounded equilibria in two standard models. Policy can satisfy the Taylor principle in the long run, even while deviating from it substantially for brief periods or modestly for prolonged periods. Macroeconomic volatility can be higher in periods when the Taylor principle is not satisfied, not because of indeterminacy, but because monetary policy amplifies the impacts of fundamental shocks. Regime change alters the qualitative and quantitative predictions of a conventional new Keynesian model, yielding fresh interpretations of existing empirical work.

Keywords: regime change; indeterminacy; monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C62 E31 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 44 pages
Date: 2006-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-mon
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Generalizing the Taylor Principle (2007)
Working Paper: Generalizing the Taylor principle (2005)
Working Paper: Generalizing the Taylor Principle (2005)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:inu:caeprp:2006001

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