A dinâmica da Inflação no Brasil

Alexis Maka and Fernando Barbosa

No 2003, Discussion Papers from Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA

Abstract: Este artigo testa curvas de Phillips usando uma especificação autorregressiva de defasagem distribuída (ADL) que abrange a curva de Phillips Aceleracionista (APC), a curva de Phillips Novo-Keynesiana (NKPC), a curva de Phillips Híbrida (HPC) e a curva de Phillips de Informação Rígida (SIPC). Utilizam-se dados do Brasil (1996T1-2012T2), usando o hiato do produto e, alternativamente, o custo marginal real como medida de pressão inflacionária. A evidência empírica rejeita as restrições decorrentes da NKPC, da HPC e da SIPC, mas não rejeita aquelas da APC. This paper tests Phillips curves using an autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) specification that encompasses the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC), the Hybrid Phillips curve (HPC), the Sticky-Information Phillips curve (SIPC), and the accelerationist Phillips curve (APC). We use data from Brazil (1996Q1-2012Q2), using the output gap and alternatively the real marginal cost as measure of inflationary pressure. The empirical evidence rejects the restrictions implied by the NKPC, the HPC, and SIPC, but does not reject those implied by the APC.

Pages: 34 pages
Date: 2014-09
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