The POTEnCIA Central scenario: An EU energy outlook to 2050

Leonidas Mantzos, Tobias Wiesenthal (), Frederik Neuwahl () and Máté Rózsai
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Tobias Wiesenthal: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Frederik Neuwahl: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en

No JRC118353, JRC Research Reports from Joint Research Centre

Abstract: This report describes the evolution of the EU energy system until the year 2050 under the assumption that no further policies and measures are introduced beyond the end of 2017. The results show that both the energy and the carbon intensity of the European economy remain on a declining path in the 'Central' scenario set-up, but will miss mid-century targets. This evolution is driven by the continued impact of policies that are already in place in combination with technology progress, as well as by structural changes and the development of the prices of fossil fuels and of the CO2 allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System. The EU target to reduce GHG emissions by at least 40% from 1990 levels in 2030 will not be met under the assumptions of the scenario, confirming the need for additional policies and measures. The Central scenario was developed with the JRC´s energy model POTEnCIA and serves as reference point to which policy scenarios can be compared. It is the result of a transparent and iterative interactive exercise between the JRC, other Commission services and Member States' national experts within the POTEnCIA modelling framework.

Keywords: Energy; Modelling; Energy System; Climate; Scenario (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 112 pages
Date: 2019-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env and nep-reg
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc118353

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