Partial stochastic analysis with the European Commission's version of the AGLINK-COSIMO model

Zebedee Nii-Naate () and Alison Burrell
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Zebedee Nii-Naate: European Commission JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en

No JRC76019, JRC Research Reports from Joint Research Centre

Abstract: The Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development (DG AGRI) publishes annually its medium-term agricultural outlook for the main agricultural sectors (i.e. cereals, oilseeds, sugar, meat, dairy, and biofuels) using a partial equilibrium model. The report contains EU-wide projections of supply balance sheets (production, consumption, exports, imports, and change in stocks) for the next 8-10 years. It is inevitable that the results from a partial equilibrium simulation model are conditional on values used for variables that enter the model exogenously. These exogenous variables include some of the key drivers of market behaviour. Because of the uncertainty surrounding their assumed values, it is very useful to conduct sensitivity analysis with respect to key exogenous variables. Stochastic analysis has been used in the DG AGRI agricultural outlooks in both 2011 and 2012 to assess the degree of sensitivity of the baseline projections to uncertainty in the macroeconomy and fluctuations in agricultural yields. This report presents the methodology underlying that analysis.

Keywords: Economic analysis; agricultural markets; modelling tools; price volatility; partial stochastic analysis; uncertainty analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 55 pages
Date: 2012-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-ore
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