Examining the Macroeconomic Determinants of Property Cycles in Australia

Yuqing Hu () and Piyush Tiwari
Additional contact information
Yuqing Hu: The University of Melbourne

International Real Estate Review, 2021, vol. 24, issue 2, 293-322

Abstract: This paper identifies the impact of macroeconomic determinants of commercial property investment and development markets in Australia. A Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter is used to filter the cyclical components of commercial property investment and development time series. In order to identify the long-run relationships and short-run dynamics, coupled with causality between these factors and property cycles, the investment and development property cycles are analyed with respect to the movement of nine macroeconomic factors by using time series data from 1987 to 2016. The empirical results suggest that the Australian commercial property market is often in an overdemand situation rather than oversupply, which can be explained by the different patterns of the property cycles on the demand and supply sides. Property investment cycles are shorter and more volatile than development cycles at around 8-10 years and more than 20 years, respectively, since there is a larger elasticity of the macroeconomic factors that underlie the investment market with short-term dynamics, while the development cycle is mainly affected by such factors moderately in the long run. Both the investment and development markets are intensively affected by financing related variables rather than market-sentiment and economic-cycle related variables.

Keywords: Property Cycle; Property investment; Property development; ARDL; Macroeconomic forces. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L85 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.gssinst.org/irer/wp-content/uploads/20 ... les-in-Australia.pdf Full text (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ire:issued:v:24:n:02:2021:p:293-322

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Global Social Science Institute, 9200 Corporate Blvd., Suite 420 Rockville, MD 20850
https://www.gssinst.org/gssinst/index.html

Access Statistics for this article

International Real Estate Review is currently edited by Professor Sing Tien Foo and Professor Ko Wang

More articles in International Real Estate Review from Global Social Science Institute Global Social Science Institute, 9200 Corporate Blvd., Suite 420 Rockville, MD 20850.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by IRER Graduate Assistant/Webmaster ().