The Possible Effects of the Belt and Road Initiative on Turkey’s Foreign Trade within the Scope of the Gravity Model: A Modes of Transportation Approach

Selim Suleyman ()
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Selim Suleyman: Istanbul Chamber of Commerce, Istanbul, Turkiye

Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, 2023, vol. 73, issue 73-1, 83-105

Abstract: The Belt and Road Initiative is a project China presented in 2013 to improve intercontinental connections and cooperation. The Belt and Road Project connects East Asia, Central Asia, West Asia, Africa, and Europe by both land and sea and aims to establish partnerships between the countries on the Belt Road, as well as to realize balanced and sustainable development in these countries. Located in the center of the continental juncture of Asia, Europe, and Africa, Turkey has an important place in China’s Belt and Road Initiative due to its geographical and geopolitical location. The aim of this study is to estimate the effect of shortening the distance among countries within the scope of the Belt and Road Initiative with regard to Turkey’s foreign trade using the Gravity Model. This study primarily reviews the literature regarding studies on Belt and Road Initiative, and regional integration in this context. The study calculates the effect of the variable of distance on Turkey’s foreign trade with respect to modes of transportation and estimates the change in Turkey’s foreign trade with the countries within the scope of the Belt and Road Initiative. When evaluating the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on Turkey’s foreign trade, the study concludes that, although certain acquisitions are gained in exports, the BRI will have a direct negative impact on the foreign trade deficit due to imports being more effective.

Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative; Mode of transportation; Gravity model; Foreign trade JEL Classification: F14; F15; F17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ist:journl:v:73:y:2023:i:1:p:83-105

DOI: 10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1120018

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