Expectations and Forward Risk Premium in the Spanish Power Market

María Dolores Furió and Vicente Meneu
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María Dolores Furió: Universitat de València
Vicente Meneu: Universitat de València

Working Papers. Serie AD from Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie)

Abstract: To analyse the forward risk premium in the Spanish electricity market, we adopt not only an ex post approach, but also an ex ante. We find that the sign of the ex post forward premium depends on the unexpected variation in demand and on the unexpected variation in the hydro-energy capacity, and that the ex ante forward premium varies with the expected demand in tight market conditions, showing that the participation of forward dealing agents in the Spanish market responds to risk considerations. Moreover, we find support for the implications derived from the Bessembinder & Lemmon (2002) equilibrium model.

Pages: 24 pages
Date: 2009-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-upt
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2009-02

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