Pensions and Fertility: Micro-Economic Evidence

Alexander Danzer and Lennard Zyska

No 13048, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: This study identifies the causal effect of pension generosity on women's fertility behavior. It capitalizes on Brazil's expansion of the pension system to rural workers, whose pension wealth subsequently more than tripled. Event study, difference-in-differences and instrumental variable methods show that the pension reform reduces the propensity of childbearing of women in fertile age by 10% in the short-run. Completed fertility declines by 1.3 children within 20 years after the reform, reducing the contribution base of the Pay-As-You-Go pension system in the long-run. The fertility response is strongest at higher birth parities, among older women and among mothers with sons.

Keywords: old-age security hypothesis; fertility; pension wealth; quasi-experiment; PAYG; Brazil (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D15 H55 I38 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 70 pages
Date: 2020-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age and nep-dem
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Published - published in: American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2023, 15 (2), 126-165

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Related works:
Journal Article: Pensions and Fertility: Microeconomic Evidence (2023)
Working Paper: Pensions and Fertility: Micro-Economic Evidence (2020)
Working Paper: Pensions and Fertility: Micro-Economic Evidence (2020)
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