Why Do Migrants Stay Unexpectedly? Misperceptions and Implications for Integration

Marc Kaufmann, Joël Machado and Bertrand Verheyden

No 14155, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: Empirical evidence suggests that a large proportion of immigrants who initially intended to stay temporarily in the destination country end up staying permanently, which may lead to suboptimal integration. We study systematic causes of unexpected staying that originate in migrant misperceptions. Our framework contains uncertainty about long-term wages, endogenous integration and savings in the short term, and return migration in the long term. We identify necessary and sufficient conditions on misperceptions that lead migrants to overestimate their probability of return migration, independently of their characteristics. We show that these conditions involve pessimism about the destination country, either in terms of short-term utility, of long-term utility, or of wage prospects. We then highlight specific behavioural biases that give rise to such forms of pessimism. Using the German Socio-Economic Panel, we find that relatively higher pessimism at arrival about future utility and wages is associated with migrants staying unexpectedly ex post.

Keywords: migrant integration; return intentions; unexpected staying; misperceptions; pessimism; GSOEP (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D91 F22 J61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 56 pages
Date: 2021-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eur, nep-int, nep-lab, nep-mig and nep-upt
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Published - substantially revised version published in: Journal of Mathematical Economics, 2025, 117, 103099.

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Related works:
Journal Article: Why do migrants stay unexpectedly? Misperceptions and implications for integration (2025)
Working Paper: Why Do Migrants Stay Unexpectedly? Misperceptions and Implications for Integration (2024)
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