House Price Expectations

Niklas Gohl (), Peter Haan (), Claus Michelsen () and Felix Weinhardt ()
Additional contact information
Niklas Gohl: DIW Berlin
Peter Haan: DIW Berlin
Claus Michelsen: DIW Berlin
Felix Weinhardt: European University Viadrina, Frankfurt / Oder

No 15040, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in housing markets. We derive and test six hypothesis about the incidence, formation, and relevance of price expectations. To do so, we use data from a tailored household survey, past sale and rental offerings, satellites, and from an information RCT. As novel findings, we show that price expectations exhibit mean reversion in the long-run. Moreover, we do not find evidence for biases related to individual housing tenure decisions or regret aversion. Confirming existing findings, we show that local market characteristics matter for expectations throughout, as well as aggregate price information. Lastly, we corroborate existing evidence that expectations are relevant for portfolio choice.

Keywords: price expectations; housing markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D84 R21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 37 pages
Date: 2022-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cwa
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Published - published in: Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization , 2024, 218, 379-398

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