Peacefully Demobilizing Rebels: Identity, Emotional Cues, and the FARC

Juan P. Aparicio (), Michael Jetter and Christopher Parsons ()
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Juan P. Aparicio: University of Ottawa
Christopher Parsons: University of Western Australia

No 16054, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: In the early 2000s, the Colombian government aired messages during games of the national football team, urging FARC rebels to demobilize. We first study the strategy's effectiveness, leveraging game dates, kick-off times, and spatial-temporal variation in rain-induced signal strength in a municipality-day-level panel spanning 2003-2016. Over 1,000 rebels demobilized because of family-themed (but not national-unity-themed) messages, received during unexpected losses (i.e., negative emotional cues). We then model a rebel's demobilization decision, combining identity salience with their emotional state. Finally, we corroborate the model's predictions examining family- versus non-family-specific holidays and local climatic anomalies.

Keywords: civil war; conflict resolution; demobilization; hearts-and-minds; information campaigns (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D74 D91 H56 L82 N46 O54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 57 pages
Date: 2023-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev and nep-spo
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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