Temperature and Fertility: Evidence from Spanish Register Data

Risto Conte Keivabu (), Marco Cozzani () and Joshua Wilde
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Risto Conte Keivabu: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Marco Cozzani: University of Florence

No 16110, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: In this paper, we combine administrative data for continental Spain from 2010 to 2018 with meteorological data to identify the effect of temperature on fertility. We demonstrate that warm (25-30°C) and hot days (>30°C) decrease total fertility rate (TFR) in Spain, and that the estimated decrease is higher than the effects estimated in previous literature for other countries. Moreover, we show that locations with a colder climate are more vulnerable to the impact of heat. Our results suggest that the global impact of climate change on population dynamics may be understated, especially without adaptation and mitigation measures, and that temperature increases may exacerbate the socio-economic consequences of low fertility such as population ageing.

Keywords: temperature; TFR; fertility; heat; Spain (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I12 J11 J13 J18 Q54 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 33 pages
Date: 2023-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env, nep-eur, nep-hea and nep-res
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Published - published online in: Population Studies , 21 August 2024

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Working Paper: Temperature and fertility: evidence from Spanish register data (2023)
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