Population Aging and Economic Growth: From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Drag?

Rainer Kotschy and David E. Bloom ()
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David E. Bloom: Harvard School of Public Health

No 16377, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which changes in working-age shares associated with population aging might slow economic growth in upcoming years. We first analyze the economic effects of changing working-age shares in a standard empirical growth model using country panel data from 1950–2015. We then juxtapose the estimates with predicted shifts in population age structure to project economic growth in 2020–2050. Our results indicate that population aging will slow economic growth throughout much of the world. Expansions of labor supply due to improvements in functional capacity among older people can cushion much of this demographic drag.

Keywords: population health; life expectancy; prospective aging; labor supply; economic development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 O11 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 60 pages
Date: 2023-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-dem, nep-gro and nep-lab
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Population Aging and Economic Growth: From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Drag? (2023)
Working Paper: Population Aging and Economic Growth: From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Drag? (2023)
Working Paper: Population Aging and Economic Growth: From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Drag? (2023)
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