A Statistical Programme Assignment Model

Jonas Staghøj (jstaghoej@econ.au.dk), Michael Svarer and Michael Rosholm
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Jonas Staghøj: Aarhus University

No 3165, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: When treatment effects of active labour market programmes are heterogeneous in an observable way across the population, the allocation of the unemployed into different programmes becomes a particularly important issue. In this paper, we present a statistical model designed to improve the present assignment mechanism, which is based on the discretionary choice of case workers. This is done in a duration model context, using the timing-of-events framework to identify causal effects. We compare different assignment mechanisms, and the results suggest that a significant reduction in the average duration of unemployment spells may result if a statistical programme assignment model is introduced. We discuss several issues regarding the implementation of such a system, especially the interplay between the statistical model and case workers.

Keywords: heterogeneous effects; targeting; profiling; statistical treatment rules (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J64 J68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 42 pages
Date: 2007-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-lab
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

Published - revised version published as "Choosing the Best Training Programme: Is there a Case for Statistical Treatment Rules?" in: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2010, 72 (2), 172-201

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Working Paper: A Statistical Programme Assignment Model (2007)
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