Estimating the Effect of the One-Child Policy on Sex Ratio Imbalance in China: Identification Based on the Difference-in-Differences

Hongbin Li, Junjian Yi and Junsen Zhang

No 5149, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: In China, the male-biased sex ratio has increased significantly. Because the one-child policy only applied to the Han Chinese but not to minorities, this unique affirmative policy allows us to identify the causal effect of the one-child policy on the increase in sex ratios by a difference-in-differences (DD) estimator. Using the 1990 census, we find that the strict enforcement of the one-child policy has led to 4.4 extra boys per 100 girls in the 1980s, accounting for about 94% of the total increase in sex ratios during this period. The robust tests indicate that the estimated policy effect is not likely confounded by other omitted policy shocks or socioeconomic changes. Moreover, we conduct the DD estimation using both the 2000 census and the 2005 mini-census. Our estimates suggest that the one-child policy has resulted in about 7.0 extra boys per 100 girls for the 1991-2005 birth cohort. The effect of the one-child policy accounts for about 57% and 54% of the total increases in sex ratios for the 1990s and the 2001-2005 birth cohorts, respectively.

Keywords: sex ratio imbalance; difference-in-differences estimator; one-child policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J13 J15 J18 O10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 50 pages
Date: 2010-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna and nep-tra
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Published - published in: Demography, 2011, 48 (4), 1535-1557

Downloads: (external link)
https://docs.iza.org/dp5149.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Estimating the Effect of the One-Child Policy on the Sex Ratio Imbalance in China: Identification Based on the Difference-in-Differences (2011)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5149

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
IZA, Margard Ody, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) IZA, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Holger Hinte ().