Nowcasting Business Cycles Using Toll Data

Nikos Askitas () and Klaus Zimmermann ()

No 5522, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: Nowcasting has been a challenge in the recent economic crisis. We introduce the Toll Index, a new monthly indicator for business cycle forecasting and demonstrate its relevance using German data. The index measures the monthly transportation activity performed by heavy transport vehicles across the country and has highly desirable availability properties (insignificant revisions, short publication lags) as a result of the innovative technology underlying its data collection. It is coincident with production activity due to the prevalence of just-in-time delivery. The Toll Index is a good early indicator of production as measured for instance by the German Production Index, provided by the German Statistical Office, which is a well-known leading indicator of the Gross National Product. The proposed new index is an excellent example of technological, innovation-driven economic telemetry, which we suggest should be established more around the world.

Keywords: production forecasting; transportation; business cycles; nowcasting; evaluating forecasts; telemetry; data mining; macroeconomic forecasting; new products (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C82 E01 E32 E37 L92 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 19 pages
Date: 2011-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec, nep-for and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Published - published in: Journal of Forecasting , 2013, 32 (4), 299 - 306.

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Journal Article: Nowcasting Business Cycles Using Toll Data (2013)
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